RE-Watchdog http://re-watchdog.com/blog Ed Earl: Boys, I got myself a pretty good bulshit detector, and I can tell when somebody's peeing on my boots and telling me it's a rainstorm. Fri, 28 May 2010 17:50:22 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.1.2 en Our industry may cease to exsist http://re-watchdog.com/blog/?p=28 http://re-watchdog.com/blog/?p=28#comments Fri, 28 May 2010 17:34:34 +0000 Capt. Krusty http://re-watchdog.com/blog/?p=28 Our Industry May Cease to Exist
Published on Tuesday, May 25, 2010, 7:33 AM Last Update: 14 hour(s) ago by James Crumbaugh III
Category: All Articles » Recruiting and Agent Retention

Last week I had the very distinct privilege of being invited to speak to a meeting that was attended by many of the leaders in our industry. I can say that it was an honor and a privilege to speak to such an esteemed group.

I would like to share with the reader of this article some of the things that jumped out at me during this conference.

The first item that really stood out is that there was only one other CEO that I spoke with that agreed with me that the Realtor is our customer. I’m sure there were other CEO’s in attendance that shared my attitude, however only one other CEO came up to me, to tell me they shared my belief. I truly believe with today’s technology that the Realtor no longer needs the Broker as much as the Broker needs the Realtor. I believe that we as a Brokerage are in the Realtor business and our Realtors are in the Real Estate business and it’s our job as a Brokerage to support our Realtors and help them become more profitable.

The second item that nearly destroyed my elation of feeling like we are the future; and that we have the business model of the future, was the technology panel. By the time this panel finished speaking I felt like a dinosaur. That night I lay awake all night and realized that our entire industry will disappear eventually. It could be in as little as 10 years.

Let me share why I say this.

I think most of you would agree that within 10 years most homes will have 3D televisions in them. So imagine if someone creates a channel that any homeowner can place their home for sale on for $200, and then everyone in the world can access that channel and see their home in 3D in their living rooms. With just one swoop, no more listings, no more MLS, no more commissions.

But it gets worse. Let’s say someone writes an application for buyers, where the buyer goes into a site for $200 and gets a security code. The first thing the system does is run a criminal background check on the buyer. Once they pass the criminal background check, the system then runs a credit check. Once the credit check is run the system then sends this information to a couple of different lenders that will be best for this particular buyer. The lender then gives the buyer a security code number and an approval number that says this buyer is approved for the following loan.

The system has already determined what a home will sell for so at this point the system sends all the properties that the buyer qualifies for in the area and size that the buyer has an interest in. The system then makes the appointments for the buyer to see these homes.

A completely seamless transaction. The buyer knows all his or hers exact costs from loan amount, to tax’s, to Title Insurance to Homeowners insurance.

When this happens the entire industry disappears. The Boards, NAR, MLS, Web Sites, Consultants, appraisers, the entire industry.

If you don’t believe this can happen let me share a little story with you. I flew into San Antonio to visit with our Texas state Broker and to drive up to Dallas with him, on our way to the Conference we passed a huge HUMMER dealership. It was vacant.

I rest my case.

]]> http://re-watchdog.com/blog/?feed=rss2&p=28 A toothless dog …..sucks http://re-watchdog.com/blog/?p=26 http://re-watchdog.com/blog/?p=26#comments Tue, 20 Apr 2010 17:03:13 +0000 Capt. Krusty http://re-watchdog.com/blog/?p=26 I was watching TBWS Daily this A. M. and they talked about compairing FHA to a toothless dog (no bite, no commitment)…..I agree, however, it’s not just FHA , were seeing this happen across the board…..All our political enities have pretty much abandened our industry….at first we were a great target for figure pointing, especially when your at the bottom of the slide…(they do say that “s—” rolls down hill…right?)…but people got wise to that, since we didn’t comit the final underwriting or funding, we were merely selling what what sold to us! My guess is were either going to be regulated out of business….or ignored out! When you ask someone in politics a specific question concerning regulation in our industry, it kind of reminds me of MELVIN P. THORPE in the Broadway play…”Best Little Whorehouse in Texas” where he sings…..”Ooh I love to dance a little sidestep, now they see me now they don’t-
I’ve come and gone and, ooh I love to sweep around the wide step,
cut a little swathe and lead the people on.” Amen…hope you’ve got strong fingure nails, because the rides going to get a little rougher, before it gets better.

]]> http://re-watchdog.com/blog/?feed=rss2&p=26 The’re comin’…batin down the hatches! http://re-watchdog.com/blog/?p=25 http://re-watchdog.com/blog/?p=25#comments Wed, 14 Apr 2010 23:17:12 +0000 Capt. Krusty http://re-watchdog.com/blog/?p=25 I thought I was the most hated man in Real Estate ?…..oh well…however, there was this one time, I did teach a German Shepard to bark in Spanish! …Seriously..my “B.S. detector” indicates a ” definite movement” in our industry… so we’re prep’n for a avalanche of new REO’s coming SOON…which will really tweak this market (value wise). The compound effect will put values in a downward vortex like a commercial-grade toilet on steroids The indicators are (from our view) 1.) BPO’s inquiries have increased in the last several months to almost a frantic pace 2.) a lot of our ancellary sources (Banks/Title co’s etc.) are inviting select brokers to sign up with their asset mgrs./REO Servicer’s …to “be on their REO distribution lists” 3.) Hedge funds and Servicer Groups are on the streets looking for brokers to “retail” or move their tapes( inventory) in specific demographic areas (here in No. Cal., especially……the “holy Grail” of REO’s) 4.) current asset mgrs. alerting exsisting listing brokers to update listing agent file info. Think were in a mess now?…just wait!

]]> http://re-watchdog.com/blog/?feed=rss2&p=25 Great “lil Organization…make yer blood boil… don’t it! http://re-watchdog.com/blog/?p=24 http://re-watchdog.com/blog/?p=24#comments Fri, 02 Apr 2010 20:32:27 +0000 Capt. Krusty http://re-watchdog.com/blog/?p=24 Hola…Everyday I watch TBWS Daily it’s two ‘ol loan hacks (true warriors) out of Fairfield, Ca…they have a 5 minute “Industry news update” for the Housing/Mortgage market….not only are they entertaining the’re networking with some really great people in the industry , folks like Carl White…and they are not shy about sharing secrets….they are one of the few left that “when they hear the sound of gun fire….they run toward it….NOT away from it” . Boy, Yesterday they got my pilot lit !…my favorite subject “support groups for State mandated licensees” They gave NAR a little “tweek”. NAR has1.1 million members…and brings in a little over a $150,000,000 from membership fees annually… that’s impressive! BUT only $50,000,000 is being spent on lobbyist to save our butts. Where’s the other $100,000,000? (that’s a lot of open house signs!). DID YOU REALIZE THAT 45% (495,000) come from the good ‘ol “sunshine state”, yup, that’s right “Arnie’s back yard” (that’s approximately $56,500,000 in revenue for NAR each year).One out of every 52 residents in the state is an agent? Since 2005 we have added 70,000 new licensees (a 57%) increase in 5 years. So that means that almost 1/2 of the revenue for NAR comes from us….AND what do we get in return…..NADA! The R/E industry in Cal is crumbling (starting with Licensed loan brokers)CAMB(or CAMP) is worthless, CAR can’t afford full time lobbyist…so they say, and are of no value, then there’s NAR. We overwhelm NAR…we’re the “ugly step child” and they don’t know what to do with us (maybe start a “sub’orginization” and call it NAR-C or “NARC”) I hear that next year when CHP pulls you over their NOT going to ask for driver’s license….they’ll ask for your DRE I.D. or foreclosure papers….that covers everyone in the state….right? Remember…the best tool in this economy is SHARP FINGERNAILS…..so hang in there!

]]> http://re-watchdog.com/blog/?feed=rss2&p=24 Pidgins continued… http://re-watchdog.com/blog/?p=23 http://re-watchdog.com/blog/?p=23#comments Wed, 17 Feb 2010 19:19:15 +0000 Capt. Krusty http://re-watchdog.com/blog/?p=23 As the the little girl said…”we’re back!”…so let’s jump right into the story.
So far we’ve seen 308 mortgage sources collapse since 2006 (according to implode_X.com), both Banks and Mortgage Bankers, housing price took a dive, millions have defaulted on their mortgages, millions have tried “loan modifications” and failed, millions have tried (or are trying) to short sale…yet our inventory of sellable foreclosed home are way down , with just trickles coming from the asset managers….so where are they? For just over a year, we have seen moratorium after moratorium sanctioned by the Feds , backing off the release of assets held. The reasoning?…stop the declining prices and stablize the market. A bi-product of this is the fact that Banks are actually learning how to deal with true modifications…AND (the big one!)…how to do short sales. In our opinion, we think that Banks, and Servicers are coming to the realization ,that just maybe…a Short sale is more rewarding (financially) then a foreclosure…no more emotional revenge…you know… “you got my money…now I’m going take your home to get even”, In spite of the positive changes, the “Buble” is still lurking out there (That right.. remember the “Bubble”? it never popped, or deflated, in fact it’s bigger then the Goodyear Blimp by now….and it’s coming!) According to the Local rag (Mercury News on 2 17/2010), there’s approximately 4,800 foreclosed homes in our little portion of the state that are being held for “release” (and we are one of the least devastated areas in the nation!)…….so when are they coming?
next time……

]]> http://re-watchdog.com/blog/?feed=rss2&p=23 “Some days your the pidgon, and some days your the statue” http://re-watchdog.com/blog/?p=22 http://re-watchdog.com/blog/?p=22#comments Wed, 17 Feb 2010 00:52:52 +0000 Capt. Krusty http://re-watchdog.com/blog/?p=22 WOW, we took a year off (last post, 1 year minus 2 days). During that time we were busy… trying to stay busy…Survival… we were looking for new “income steams”, and adjusting to market and regualtion changes. Our team tossed 50 balls into the air to see which ones would stay up., and the fall-out has been a real eye-opener.
It been BPO’s (Broker Price Opinion), REO’s (Real Estate Owned-foreclosures),loan Modifications, Short Sales, floating mortgage limit parameters, moritoriums, HVCC (Home Valuation Code of Conduct- appraisals), and the GFE (Federal Good Faith
Estimate) debacle.

Just crossing over into 2010… and our state (California) tosses the Mortgage Broker into the arena and turns their back on us (SB 36-requiring a Federal endorcement for all individuals with a DRE lic. that orginate mortgages).Of course, Banks (who don’t require any licensing) and CFL holders are exempt from the Federal tag. So in addition to maintaining a DRE lic. the “Mortgage Originator” has to have, E&O insurance, the cost of the Fed.background check, finger printing , a credit report (yup,that’s right- you need to have good credit…in able to write loans, according to the Fed’s), the actual cost of the Federal endorcement….AND if your Broker of record is a member of a Real Estate Board, you also have to maintain board membership (2009 law!). With that annual financial load, you need Bail-out funds just to get the pilot lit!

So, maybe I don’t want to concentrate on loans this year…….. but , that’s not the end of the story…let take a look at the actual Real Estate market…oh, by the way….where did all those foreclosures go???
…next time

]]> http://re-watchdog.com/blog/?feed=rss2&p=22 The Calvary is coming! http://re-watchdog.com/blog/?p=21 http://re-watchdog.com/blog/?p=21#comments Thu, 19 Mar 2009 23:28:18 +0000 Mr. B http://re-watchdog.com/blog/?p=21 Not that I’m suspicious or anything…but around Friday the 13th I start feeling a little funky…Well this started on Friday the 13th in 2006 with a feeling of “impending doom” and continued in a downward spiral. Things actually started getting worse, and have continued doing so. It been a hard pull being a small business owner, especially if your an owner/broker of a Real Estate related business. So every year since, when I see that day on the calander I wonder what direction my “Joss” will go.
Last Friday was the first “Friday the 13th” of 2009. It came…it went and no major disasters. This week good stuff started happening. The bond market had a 50 point spread in our favor which has not happened in four decades, The Big Cheese, Mr. “O” jumped in with 3 trillion (yes…that’s with a “T”) dollars to shore up Fannie/Freddie and instill some confidence in the “bulls and the bears” down there on Wall St. He also scared the stuffing out of a lot of the banking administration types with “hard rules” and accountability for bail-out money..(guess they are not use to telling people where the money evaporates too).
A lot of people are buying homes that never could before. The sun is shinning, birds are signing, flowers are blooming, spring is just a week away ,my doors are still open… and I am setting here watching the intrest rate drop like a fat skydiver with no parachute. Life ain’t all that bad.

Capt. Crusty

]]> http://re-watchdog.com/blog/?feed=rss2&p=21 What Would Wake up The Housing Market? http://re-watchdog.com/blog/?p=20 http://re-watchdog.com/blog/?p=20#comments Sat, 31 Jan 2009 00:12:16 +0000 Andy http://re-watchdog.com/blog/?p=20 It’s not a big secrete. The fed has been stimulating the economy for years. If what they are doing is not working right now we need to try something else. The banks have screw up so badly we have to bail them out. If they are getting billions of dollars handed to them by our government and paid for by Joe tax payer. Why isn’t our government requiring a detailed account of where the money is being spent and why isn’t it being spent where it will stimulate the economy? There has to be relief for the tax payers to get the economy moving.

Why don’t we require a 3.5% interest rate max on all new home loans and new credit charges for a 3 year period. People will refinance and consolidate debt. People will start buying homes because more people will qualify. Have stated income loans but restrict the loan to value. If a person has saved $80,000 (20% of $400,000 sales price) to use as a down payment they are vested in their home and are less likely to walk from a property if the value decreases. At the end of the three year period everyone including the banks should be in a much better financial position.

Oh and one more thing. If a company is not run well its CEO should be fired not given a bonus. As a tax payer I am tired of bailing out companies.

]]> http://re-watchdog.com/blog/?feed=rss2&p=20 “Look’n for Love in all the wrong places Part #1″ http://re-watchdog.com/blog/?p=19 http://re-watchdog.com/blog/?p=19#comments Thu, 15 May 2008 20:15:58 +0000 Capt. Krusty http://re-watchdog.com/blog/?p=19 With all the press and hype on the market tanking…and the foreclosures…and the short sales, everyone’s looking for the perfect bargin.
Some how in all the media confusion, word has gotten out that “Short sale” will get you your dream home at a really great price…but after eleven months of watching every conceivable bidding tactic imaginable , I’ve come to the conclusion that winning in a short sale is pure “roll of the dice” luck for the buyer.
Smart money is on the foreclousure! WHY?
Let’s look at the psychology of Short sale vs Foreclousure from the banks point of view. 1.) In anticipating a short sale, the bank has not lost anything YET , and wants to lose as little as possible. 2.) No employee of the bank wants to be the one to make the decision to lose that asset. 3.) It’s easier to say “No” then to say “Yes”. Those who say “no” are not wrong….just cautious. Those who say “Yes” are exposed, and if something goes wrong…may be the subject of blame.No one wants to be wrong on the corpoate ladder,therefore getting a quick decision from a bank is unlikley. Another little twist is …somewhere in the bank is a room full of people that have only one mission in life…try and extract as much of the mortgage payments out of the the short sale client as possible AND try to talk you into keeping the property. YES they will contact you directly and try to get you to keep paying…anything, any amount…and their good at it.

On the foreclosure…decision has been made, the money has been lost…now you’ve got a depleated asset to deal with. At first, the holder of the asset will try to recapture as much money as possible by setting the price as close to fair market as fits the condition of the asset. As time goes on, they loosen their grip a little (realizing “time-is-also-money”), so lets get this sucker off the books! This is what’s called the “sweet spot” and usually occures around 60-90 days into the listing(our area), however this really varies with where you live and average D.O.M. for your MLS. When the chemistry is correct, and the planets are aligned…the decision will come quick.
Next time : Getting the bank to look at your offer .

]]> http://re-watchdog.com/blog/?feed=rss2&p=19 Economic stimulus package, has it helped? http://re-watchdog.com/blog/?p=18 http://re-watchdog.com/blog/?p=18#comments Fri, 28 Mar 2008 17:44:43 +0000 Mr. B http://re-watchdog.com/blog/?p=18 I read a great article about the new conforming loan limits today in the san Jose Mercury news. It echos everything I have been seeing from the lenders. I was hoping that the economic stimulus package was going to have a larger impact that it has. My phone has been ringing off the hook lately from people needing to get a debt consolidation loan. Many have a jumbo first loan and a small second they they want to combine and get a fixed rate payment on. With the values dropping in Santa Clara County, almost every one of them wants to convert their short term ARM to a 30 yr fixed rate with an affordable payment. With the current jumbo 30 year fixed rates being as ugly as they are, it doesn’t make sense for them to do it. With the new conforming limits these loans should be possible at much lower rates. The guidelines for the new loans are so strict, the impact we were hoping for may never happen. I can understand lenders being conservative on the loans they underwrite, but please…. Let’s bring back some common sense underwriting and let the qualified borrowers take advantage of the ecomomic package as it was intended.

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